Bill (PL) 5.473 of 2025, recently approved by the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE), proposes significant changes in the taxation of Brazilian fixed-odds betting companies (Bets) and financial institutions, including Brazilian fintechs.
The text will now move to the Chamber of Deputies, in a context of high likelihood of being converted into law, given the current political‑legislative environment.
Below, we outline 5 key points of attention that the legal and management departments of these companies should closely monitor.
1. Progressive and Significant Increase in the Tax Burden: The core element of the Bill is the gradual increase in taxes for both sectors, making it crucial for companies to model the financial impact of this progression. For Brazilian Bets, the Contribution on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) will rise from the current 12% to 15% in 2026 and 2027, reaching 18% as of 2028. For Brazilian fintechs, the Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) will increase from 9% to 12% in 2026 and 2027, and will reach 15% as of 2028.
2. Different Tax Bases and Their Effects: It is essential to distinguish the nature of the taxes. GGR, applied to Brazilian Bets, is levied on gross gaming revenue (total bets minus prizes paid). CSLL, in the case of Brazilian fintechs, is levied on net profit, after all expenses and costs have been accounted for. This difference directly affects financial planning and the cost structure of each business model, requiring distinct accounting and legal analyses to mitigate the effects of the increase.
3. The Constitutional Principle of Tax Prior Notice: The Federal Constitution prohibits the collection of taxes in the same fiscal year in which the law that created or increased them was published, and before 90 days have elapsed from its publication. By setting the beginning of the tax increases for 2026, the Bill appears, at first glance, to comply with the annual tax prior‑notice rule. However, the application of the 90‑day prior‑notice rule to CSLL is a point of attention. The case law of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) is well established in the sense that any tax increase, even if indirect, must comply with these prior‑notice requirements. Any breach of these rules in the final wording of the law will open room for judicial challenge.
4. Need to Review Strategic Planning: The increase in the tax burden requires an immediate reassessment of financial and operational planning. Brazilian Bets and fintechs must recalculate their profit margins, pricing structures, investment policies, and cash‑flow projections for the coming years. Waiting for the law to be signed before starting this analysis may represent a strategic risk, jeopardizing the medium‑ and long‑term sustainability and competitiveness of the business.
5. Monitoring the Legislative Process and Possible Future Actions: Bill 5.473/2025 is not yet law. The text may be amended during its passage through the Chamber of Deputies. In this context, it is vital that the sectors involved closely follow the legislative process and actively present their perspectives. After a possible enactment, if the final text contains defects, such as violation of the constitutional tax prior‑notice rules (annual and 90‑day) or other constitutional provisions, judicial measures to challenge the validity of the new rules should be considered.
In summary, the scenario calls for a proactive stance. Integration among legal, accounting, and strategic teams will be crucial to navigate the transition period and adapt to the new Brazilian regulatory environment. Anticipating the effects of Bill 5.473/2025 is not merely a precautionary measure, but a competitive advantage for the financial health and long‑term viability of Brazilian Bets and fintech operations.
